only the lazy didn't rush to discuss the draft budget in the second reading on friday. we are not lazy and therefore also decided to take part in the discussion, although there is no particular point in it. all there is to know about the 2021 budget as presented by the government is the large cash gap (i.e. deficit) between fictional revenues and real spending. they want to finance the deficit with debt securities, which are selling worse and worse.
so, in the finalized draft, which the cabinet of ministers has submitted to the verkhovna rada, revenues will amount to 1.092 trillion. uah, expenses - 1.328 trillion. uah previously it was, respectively, 1.071 trillion. uah and 1.331 trillion. uah somewhere they shortened, in another place they finished. in general, we reshaped the trishkin caftan.
the ministry of finance is very proud that by the second reading the deficit has been reduced from 6% to 5.5% of gdp - by uah 24 billion. up to uah 246.35 billion. but this is still good intentions. in the current budget, there was even a 2.3% deficit (a standard requirement of the imf), and it became almost 8%. that's what the pandemic has done!
nevertheless, the imf did not find fault because the situation is bad (from the word “absolutely”) in all countries of the world. and even gave us one tranche of a new line of credit. and now, in honor of the coronavirus crisis, # 2 is making concessions on the budget deficit. perhaps 5.5% was agreed with the fund in advance. it was not in vain that a ukrainian delegation headed by the chairman of the nbu, kirill shevchenko, flew to washington recently.
i see that the loudest noise is around the financing of the authorities and security forces. the cost of servicing the activities of the president and ceo in 2021 will be 39.4% more than in the current year. added uah 357.7 million. became only 1.2 billion uah. but this is a penny compared to the fact that the office of the prosecutor general is added another 2 billion hryvnyas, the apparatus of the ministry of internal affairs - 797.4 million hryvnia, the state consumer service - 538.1 million hryvnia, the ministry of foreign affairs - 498.2 million. hryvnia, the ministry of health - 3.946 billion hryvnia, which in turn is taken away from the ministry of education.
logical. why do universities need money if students study remotely, but in fact do not seriously study at all? bored teachers write dissertations, and some who have already written and are disillusioned with science seek the truth in wine. science and higher education in the era of a pandemic are degrading at an alarming rate. but everyone is not up to them.
and the prosecutors and the police work. someone is being caught, someone is trying to put someone in jail. police officers draw up protocols on citizens without masks in public places. and now they will also start to fine, “without leaving the cashier”. in such a situation, patrolmen need more of their own masks, forms, pencils, etc. here with budget supplements everything is clear. i don’t understand with what joy 549.5 million hryvnias were additionally donated to the state space agency. are we seriously going into space?
but these figures are not taken seriously, if you look closely at the revenue side of the budget. where will the money come from to put it in a nightstand called the treasury and then get it out of there for various current spending?
in addition to the standard mythical source, which is present in all budget projects, but has never been implemented - privatization (next year a modest uah 6 billion, but even it will not be easy to master), we have income from gambling business, additional amounts from import duties and almost all profits of state-owned enterprises.
there are great optimists at the ministry of finance, of course, if they expect uah 7.44 billion to go to the special fund of the state budget in 2021. by paying for licenses to organize and conduct gambling and lottery licenses.
i still see a crowd of people willing to bring a bag of money to the state for the right to open a casino in a quarantine, lockdown and almost one hundred percent subsidence of tourism. no one is going to “cheat” all sorts of “virtuals” who serve gamblers on-line. it's like taxing the air. it is only from the legalized gambling business that they have drawn a “parish”.
i have big doubts about another point - increasing the collection plan for customs by uah 2.4 billion. due to import duties. everything is falling in our country - imports and exports, but the first is falling faster. accordingly, taxes on imports are paid much less.
for reference. in january-september 2020, ukraine reduced imports from the eu alone by 10.5% - to $ 16.44 billion.the volume of foreign trade in goods with its largest trading partner, the country of russia, in january-august decreased by 32.5% or by $ 2.3 billion - up to $ 4.7 billion in 2020.
total trade turnover of ukraine in january-september decreased by $ 7.1 billion (8.9%) and amounted to $ 73 billion, of which the import of goods amounted to $ 38 billion and decreased by $ 5.1 billion, or 11 ,eight%. and exports - $ 35.1 billion and decreased by 2 billion or 5.6%.
ask how the customs in such conditions manages to fulfill the plan for the current year? so the ministry of finance cut it by uah 9.1 billion in may! ex-head of customs, maxim nefedov, repeatedly muttered indignantly about this. because under him, due to quarantine, the state customs service did not fulfill the not yet reduced plan for revenues of almost uah 3 billion. for which he was fired (formal reason). and then the bar was lowered. insulting.
another air lock is the requirement for state-owned enterprises to deduct not 30%, but 90% of their net profit to the budget. how do officials see it? and from what funds will the huge salaries of top managers and members of supervisory boards be paid? or rebranding and modernization? if you take every penny, for example, from ukrposhta, there will be a million salary left to one igor smelyansky.
so i wang that next year the state enterprises will not have any profit at all. even from those who could earn it nominally. neftegaz was the first to rush to demonstrate losses. well done, andrey kobolev! quick-witted manager.
the national bank did not understand at all what was happening when they saw the amount of deductions to the budget, which the cabinet drew for them in the draft for the second reading - another plus 12 billion hryvnyas. was uah 33 billion, now uah 45 billion.
the head of the nbu, kirill shevchenko, said in an interview with the voice of america that according to the law, “we can transfer to the budget only the amount that will be obtained as a result of confirmation by our auditors. preliminary, this amount was announced 2.26 billion hryvnia. "
and further added that if the auditors confirm the statements of the national bank and find an extra uah 45 billion there, then there are no questions - we will hand over everything to the treasury. but if they don't, then ... there will be a hole in the budget. that is, the deficit will grow.
ask how to finance it? the question, of course, is interesting. in short, in a country where even the national bank, which prints money, tries to pretend that it has not a penny in its heart, it is very difficult to balance debit with credit. the only salvation is ovgs. but they no longer really save. however, about this in a separate article.
to be continued.
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