gas suffering – 3

we continue to study the paradoxes of the gas market, which the country received as a result of the reform. competition was somehow created, but its main advantage - price reduction - is not visible. on the contrary, gas prices rose sharply in october. and from all suppliers at once. at the same time, all year long we saw a decline in world prices at our favorite european hubs and listened to the stories of "oil and gas" that underground storage facilities were filled to the brim on the cheap. where, then, is the rise in price? or is it just speculation? and whose gas is in our gas plants?

in october, gas prices for the population jumped sharply: up to uah 7 on average. per cubic meter m, while a month ago prices did not exceed 5 uah. per cubic meter m. the lowest price is offered by two companies: oil and gas of ukraine group of companies - 4.7 uah. per cube, and a mysterious company with american roots pavil energy - 4.8 uah. (hasn't pavel ivanovich lazarenko already taken up the old one - gas trading? - the author). the prices of other suppliers range from 5.7 uah. up to 7.3 uah per cubic meter.

the rise in gas prices for the population is explained by the fact that at the end of september gas prices rose sharply at european hubs. but did we buy gas at the end of september? after all, by that time, according to "ukrtransgaz", gas reserves in ukrainian underground gas storage facilities exceeded 28 billion cubic meters. m. is the maximum that fits in ukrainian storage facilities. the newly created "operator of gts" even stated that vacancies are running out in the ugs: 90% of the capacity has already been filled.

“in connection with the limitation of the pumping capacity into the storage facility by the operator“ ukrtransgaz ”, the confirmation of nomination / renomination when using capacity with restrictions at interstate connection points is carried out only after confirmation of the corresponding nominations / renominations for pumping into the storage facility,” the statement of the “operator of the gas station of ukraine ", which few people were able to decipher the first time. well, bureaucratic literature is like that.

in general, according to ukrtransgaz, three storage facilities were fully filled, and the largest ukrainian storage facility bilche-volitsko-uherskoe - by 97.6%. as of september 30, it contained 16.6 billion cubic meters of gas.

march spot gas prices in europe were among the lowest in the entire recent history of the gas market - they dropped below $ 80 per thousand cubic meters. according to the results of trading on march 30, the price of gas at the national balancing point (nbp) at the time of the start of gas purchases by ukraine was 17.75 pence per thermometer ($ 77.7 per thousand cubic meters)

now let's see how much it cost. ukraine officially began pumping gas on april 6, 2020, then 15.798 billion cubic meters remained in the country's gas storage facilities. m. and by the end of the summer pumped another 12.284 billion cubic meters of gas. accordingly, purchases were made approximately in march.

march spot gas prices in europe were among the lowest in the entire recent history of the gas market - they dropped below $ 80 per thousand cubic meters. according to the results of trading on march 30, the price of gas at the national balancing point (nbp) at the time of the start of gas purchases by ukraine was 17.75 pence per therm ($ 77.7 per thousand cubic meters). and on the main european trading floor - the dutch ttf - 7 euros per mwh ($ 79.97 per thousand cubic meters). then it rose a little, but not higher than $ 85 per thousand cubic meters.

i repeat: within such price limits, ukraine bought 12.284 billion cubic meters of gas from europe. how much do we consume? in 2019, according to ukrtransgaz, the consumption of natural gas in ukraine compared to 2018 decreased by 7% - from 32.3 billion cubic meters. m to 29.8 billion cubic meters. m. depending on the winter - whether it is warm or cold - gas consumption can fluctuate by plus or minus 4 billion cubic meters. m. about 15.4 billion cubic meters are spent on utilities. m, half of this volume is sold directly to the population.

do not forget that ukrgasvydobuvannya produces about 14 billion cubic meters per year. m of gas, due to which "oil and gas" is dumping in comparison with other market players. in other words, we don't just have enough gas, we have an abundance of it. why raise prices if the product is not in short supply?

firstly, we still need to figure out whose gas lies in our gas storage facilities. i recently read in a specialized publication that due to excessive stocks in storage facilities in europe and low tariffs in ukraine, traders from eu countries are demanding ukrainian capacities.

it turns out that many companies were purchased for future use while prices were below $ 100 per thousand cubic meters. and since ukraine offered the most preferential storage tariffs - $ 10 per thousand cubic meters per cycle, as of september 1, more than a third of gas, or 9.2 billion cubic meters, in ukrainian storage facilities accounted for blue fuel, which was stored on a “customs warehouse” basis. it turns out that not all the gas that is in the ugs is "oil and gas".

второй момент – это банальное желание заработать на потребителе. без лоха и жизнь плоха. «логика трейдеров прозрачна: летом купить дешевле, чтобы зимой продать дороже. цены на газ в европе уже растут», – отмечает сопредседатель фонда энергетических стратегий дмитрий марунич.

в-третьих, газовики хотят иметь достаточно средств, чтобы оплатить закупки газа в будущем. сейчас цены почти вдвое выше, чем были весной – уже $138 за тысячу кубометров по сравнению с $78. если в этом году будет более холодная зима, чем в прошлом, и спрос на газ резко вырастет. и цены тоже.
мы-то все думали, что топ-менеджеры “нефтегаза” – это молодые гении, взращенные на секретах гарвардской науки управления. и чистая прибыль “нефтегаза” в 2019 году составила 63,3 млрд. грн., что в 5,5 раза больше показателя за 2018 год, – их заслуга. а оказалось, что весь секрет успеха в высоких мировых ценах на газ и... стокгольмском арбитраже

опять же цены подрастут, почему бы не продать украинский газ в европу и не заработать суперприбыли за счет низкой себестоимости добычи? а украинцам предложить к реализации на свободном конкурентном рынке тот, что закупили в европе подешевле, но уже втридорога.

при этом меня умиляет, что “нефтегаз украины” демонстрирует убытки в размере 11,5 млрд. грн., объясняя это падением мировых цен и снижением спроса на энергоресурсы, а также потерей доходов от транзита газа.

как написал глава “нефтегаза” андрей коболев на своей странице в facebook: "цены на газ в европе (ncg) с начала года упали на 58% до рекордно исторических минимумов. было бы наивно думать, что такая же участь обойдет “нефтегаз”. снижение спроса и цен на энергоресурсы повлияло на все сегменты нашей деятельности. мы зафиксировали убыток в отчетности за первое полугодие".

он добавил, что ухудшение финансовых показателей произошло на фоне завершения анбандлинга и передачи функции транспортировки газа и, соответственно, доходов от этого вида деятельности к независимому оператору гтс.

"19,3 млрд. грн. за 6 месяцев 2020-го получил оператор газотранспортной системы украины за услуги транзита газа в страны ес и молдовы. сейчас этот показатель отсутствует в нашем отчете, ведь отделение гтс было сознательным шагом, без которого продолжение транзита по европейским правилам было бы невозможным", – напомнил коболев.

посмотрите, как интересно: мы-то все думали, что топ-менеджеры “нефтегаза” – это молодые гении, взращенные на секретах гарвардской науки управления. и чистая прибыль “нефтегаза” в 2019 году составила 63,3 млрд. грн., что в 5,5 раза больше показателя за 2018 год, – их заслуга. а оказалось, что весь секрет успеха в высоких мировых ценах на газ и... стокгольмском арбитраже. напомним, в 2019 году "нефтегаз" зачислил в свой доход свыше 60 млрд. грн. от российского "газпрома". за что же мы этим суперменеджерам назначили такие гигантские зарплаты?

but gazprom will not supply generously every year. however, we are the consumers. all that remains is to recall the algorithm of the so-called soviet “black boxing” and engage in speculation on the sale of gas to its own population. it won't let you down. will pay everything in full.

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