бюджетный портной

how to fulfill and overfulfill the budget in the conditions of the post-quarantine fall of the economy? very simple: you need to adjust the planned income indicators downward and diligently save on expenses. in ukraine they took the two-in-one route: both revenues were cut by uah 120 billion, and spending for 8 months was underfunded by uah 92.4 billion. the balance came together! but already in september the minimum wage rose and payments to doctors increased. and there may be a financial distortion in october. will have to reshape the budget again.

a few words about the realities in which we live. literally a couple of weeks after the quarantine began in march, officials realized they could not meet the 2020 budget targets. therefore, in april they adopted amendments to it, which minus uah 120 billion of revenues. to be exact - uah 119.7 billion or 11%. the new figure for this year's budget revenues is uah 975.8 billion.

the bar was set lower. we can say with a margin. thanks to which, in september 2020, the tax authorities' fulfillment of the plan for filling the general fund of the state budget amounted to 128.8%. if we take the so-called pre-quarantine indicative and recalculate the collected taxes in relation to it, then we get under-fulfillment - 92.6% of 100% required.

this is quite a bit, given that many enterprises stopped in quarantine, staff were fired or sent on vacation, the state introduced holidays for the payment of a unified social contribution for fop. imports also decreased: almost 20% instead of the expected 10%. and less imports - less taxes from it. public transport did not work, planes did not fly, therefore, the consumption of fuels and lubricants fell, production also. well, they paid less taxes.

therefore, the planned figure for vat receipts from goods imported into the customs territory of ukraine was not fulfilled - by uah 33.3 billion (16.9%); import duties - by uah 391.5 million (2.9%). as well as rent payments for the use of mineral resources - by uah 5.2 billion (24.2%); personal income tax and collection - by uah 1.1 billion (1.4%).

even more curious is the cost situation. it is much worse than income. according to the accounting chamber, in january-august, the failure to fulfill the plan of expenditures of the general fund amounted to 92.4 billion hryvnyas (or 12.5%), while in the first half of the year, expenditures were carried out by 51 billion (or 9.5%) less than the plan ... what did you save on?


еще любопытнее ситуация по расходам. она гораздо хуже, чем по доходам. по данным счетной палаты, в январе-августе невыполнение плана расходов общего фонда составило уже 92,4 млрд. грн (или 12,5%), тогда как в i полугодии расходов осуществлено на 51 млрд. (или 9,5%) меньше плана. на чем же сэкономили?

меньше плана почему-то оказались расходы минздрава на возмещение затрат на медицинское обслуживание населения – на 13,6 млрд. грн. неужели все оборудование купили щедрые спонсоры? минобороны меньше потратило на закупку, модернизацию и ремонт вооружения, военной техники, средств и оборудования - на 5,7 млрд. грн. пандемия помеха обороне?

низким был уровень финансирования «антивирусных» программ. это – помощь фонда социального страхования, выплата пособий по временной нетрудоспособности из-за лечения от коронавируса или пребывания на самоизоляции, а также на единовременное пособие семьям медиков. в первом полугодии выполнили лишь 1,6% от запланированных по этой программе расходов. почему? потому что получить деньги по этой статье почти нереально. государство старательно защитило себя бюрократическими барьерами от излишних трат. выполнение некоторых программ развития и господдержки также оказалось на низком уровне. к примеру, на финансовую поддержку сельхозпроизводителей за полгода потрачено 63% плана. молодцы! вот и урожай на юге сгорел. фермеры даже вешались из-за этого.

в первом полугодии полностью стояло на паузе финансирование субвенции из казны местным бюджетам на социально-экономическое развитие. фонд регионального развития вместо запланированных 2 млрд. грн получил лишь 0,6 млрд. грн. финансирование этих программ ускорилось только в июле-сентябре – накануне местных выборов. дополнительно государство сэкономило 7,1 млрд. грн на обслуживании государственного долга, в том числе из-за укрепления курса гривны.

но в октябре бюджетные расходы вырастут. медицинские работники с сентября начнут получать доплаты к заработной плате. «если мы говорим о враче, то это в среднем 3 560 грн, а младший медицинский персонал – около 1 250 грн», – сказал министр максим степанов. на это предусмотрено почти 6 млрд. грн.

к тому же повысится зарплата в целом: с 1 сентября, в украине, согласно принятому на внеочередном заседании верховной рады закону, минимальная зарплата выросла до 5 тыс. грн. соответственно вся тарифная сетка увеличивается.

дополнительные бюджетные расходы на повышение зарплаты планируют получить за счет увеличения поступлений от налога на доходы физлиц – на 461,3 млн грн, налога на добавленную стоимость – на 80 млн грн, а также благодаря уменьшению расходов на обслуживание госдолга на 3,5 млрд. грн. но этих денег явно не хватит.

 

in any case, the national bank expects the actual budget deficit in 2020 at the level of 6-6.5% of gdp instead of 7.5% envisaged in the draft state budget. mainly due to underfunding. now it is important not to go wild with the cost of building roads. for six months the state spent more than 40% of the annual plan of "ukravtodor"


in addition, the pension fund of ukraine said that the increase in the minimum wage will become the basis for increasing the minimum old-age pension for non-working pensioners who have reached 65 years of age and have a long insurance record: 35 years for men and 30 years for women. the minimum pension for them will grow, since it is 40% of the minimum wage: now - uah 1889.20 (uah 4723 x 40%), and it will become uah 2 thousand (uah 5000 x 40%). recalculation of pension benefits for this category of citizens will take place in september, the budget will feel the costs themselves in october, when payments begin.

moreover, since august, targeted assistance to pension payments has been increased to family members of military personnel who died (or died as a result of injury) during direct participation in ato / oos. this assistance should be paid to family members who have lost their breadwinner, whose pension amount does not reach uah 7800. if a pension is assigned to two or more members of the same family, targeted assistance to the pension is set in the amount of up to uah 6100 for each, within the maximum amount of the pension.

there is an opinion that money for atos will be taken from the funds of assistance to some representatives of small business, which was paid before september. from april to july of this year, 83 thousand individual entrepreneurs received uah 554 million of state aid for children under 10 years old. then the payment was extended to august.

expecting new expenses, the cabinet of ministers by its order no. 1177 of september 28 reduced the financing of benefits and housing subsidies to citizens by uah 756.9 million. however, the specified amount increased the costs of the program "measures for the social, labor and vocational rehabilitation of persons with disabilities." so no major changes have occurred here. just patched up and redrawn. the right sleeve was sewn to the left.

in any case, the national bank expects the actual budget deficit in 2020 at the level of 6-6.5% of gdp instead of 7.5% envisaged in the draft state budget. mainly due to underfunding. now it is important not to go wild with the cost of building roads. for six months the state has spent more than 40% of the annual plan of "ukravtodor". if you do not continue to arrange an attraction of unprecedented generosity in terms of road construction, there is a chance to tailor a budget "caftan" more or less according to a trishka. if the tailor is not changed. in the sense of the head of the ministry of finance. for a new broom sweeps in a new way. and instead of some underfunded expenses, there will be other overfinanced ones. and the income will no longer be. crisis after all. coronavirus is on the rise ...

 

 

 

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